Project to Manage Climate Risk on Water Resources in the Region of Coquimbo

Introduction

Climatic variability in arid zones is a basic factor when managing dry areas, causing uncertainty to the portion of population that exclusively depends on annual precipitation. In irrigated zones, climatic variability also exerts a strong influence, both regarding water availability in the management of multipurpose dams and through other weather factors, like frosts for example. In some places, variability is strongly linked to the “El Niño” and La Niña” phenomena (ENSO), which give origin to a high or low temperature of superficial seawater (TSM) in the Equator Pacific Ocean. Monitoring TSM, combined with the Global Climate Models (GCMs) prediction system can help anticipate whether climatic anomalies are likely to occur (for example, associated to a Niño or Niña phenomenon) and its effects on the development of a drought (mainly affecting the dry area) and on the flows that influence water deposit management.

Objective

To establish an approach and tools to attain Climatic Risk Management (CRM, as defined in the attached document) in relation to water resources in semi-arid regions, addressing urban consumption and agriculture in dry areas and irrigated crops.

Organization of Activities

Research will be organized in two groups of tasks. The first set of activities will be focused on identifying the main vulnerabilities (pillar 1 of CRM, according to the attached document), reducing uncertainties with respect to climate and to the amount of water available (pillar 2 of the CRM),and identifying technologies aimed at reducing vulnerabilities (pillar 3 of the CRM) through the following aspects: (a) an improved forecasting of climate and regional flows at different time scales, (b) development and assessment of tools to optimize water supply for alternative uses that compete one against the other (agriculture, urban use, raising shrimps), (c) identifying technologies to increase efficiency of water use in agriculture.

This group of activities will also be focused on water management for agriculture in dry areas and will result in establishing a support and information system for decision making (applying the lessons learned in the South Cone), which will include an early alert system for droughts. These activities will be developed in the context of two projects: the first in the Northeast of Brazil (in collaboration with the University of Ceará, and FUNCEME), and the other in the IV Region of Chile (in collaboration with CAZALAC, University of La Serena, Government of Coquimbo, National Water Directorate). The second set of activities is focused on institutional policies and arrangements related to risk management regarding water resources (pillar 4 of the CRM). One project is focused on the regional governments’ institutional ability to address vulnerability to impacts caused by climate changes (Argentina, Chile & Bolivia). Another proposed project compares alternative policies to allocate water resources for an integrated variability of climate in an environment of urban water management (Chile compared with the Philippines).

Activities and Roles

Management in dry zones: Drought prediction and grass production.

Topic: Climatic prediction (droughts)

• Koen Verbist (Cazalac/UGent)
• Walter Baetghen/Andrew Robertson (IRI)
• Marcel Ramos (CEAZA)
• Claudia Villaroel (Dirección Meteorológica de Chile)

Topic: Vegetation monitoring (satellite data, field assessments)
Satellite data /vegetation relation

• Yann Tracol (CEAZA)
• Raúl Meneses (CEAZA/INIA)

Topic: Soil database
Soil water balance

• Koen Verbist (Cazalac/UGent)
• Carlos Sierra (INIA)

Dam management: Flow forecasts and dam management

Topic: climatic prediction (flows)

• Edmundo González (CEAZA) + IRI (Paul Block)
• Victor Gonzalez (Junta de Vigilancia Choapa)

Topic: climatic prediction (long term- decade variability, climatic change)

• Maxim Souvignet (CEAZA)
• Lisa Goddard (IRI)

Topic: Management of multipurpose dams models

• Nicole Kertschmer (CEAZA)
• Surveillance Associations
• Casey Brown (IRI)

Irrigated zone management: Weather forecast and impacts on agriculture production

Topic: Weather forecasting (temperature) - frost

• Orlando Astudillo (CEAZA)

Topic: Crop Production Models (vineyard)

• Leoncio Martinez (INIA)

Climate risk mitigation tools: Insurance, other tools.

Topic: Small sized agriculture insurance

• Casey Brown (IRI)
• Alex Alamo (INDAP)

Publications

Climate forecasts in the Region of Coquimbo using statistic downscaling techniques.pdf (449 KB)

Preliminary Climate Prediction in the IV Region of Coquimbo

This information is part of the Project called Climatic Risk Management in Water Resources in the Region of Coquimbo, and may not be used under any circumstances without CAZALAC’s prior authorization, being a preliminary prediction. For more information please contact Guido Soto – Executive Director of CAZALAC - gsoto@cazalac.org

Access to preliminary results (authorized users).

Planning workshop
“FACING DROUGHTS IN THE REGION OF COQUIMBO, TOWARDS AN EARLY ALERT SYSTEM “
Place: La Serena, 11 March, 2008

Objectives:

• Inform related researchers and public institutions on the initiative and propose a work methodology
• Discuss and improve the proposal
• Identify ‘key’ people for each project stage
• Determine a work plan for the actions defined

Workshop participants

Presentations

Climatic Risk Management in the Agriculture-livestock industry -Walter Baethgen (ppt. 10 Mb)
Climatic predictions to anticipate droughts and extreme events -Koen Verbist (ppt. 1.8 Mb)
Climatic risk management - Koen Verbist (ppt. 943 Kb)
Extreme Event Prediction: Experiences in the Region of Coquimbo -Orlando Astudillo (ppt. 17 Mb)