International Workshop 'Development of near-term climate scenarios (2020-2035) for vulnerable watersheds to climatic variability at the interanual, decadal and climate change time scales'

La Serena, 3-8 August 2014

General Objective

The objective of this activity is to develop probabilistic scenarios for near-term climatic conditions for vulnerable pilot watersheds in Latin America, based on a historical analysis of climatic variability, combined with an assessment of current and projected sensitivity to climate change.

Specific Objectives

Specifically, the workshop contributes to:

a) capacity building of early-career professionals on the application of Near Term Climate Change Scenario Analysis for applications in hydrology and drought vulnerability analysis;

b) training on the available open source software options (R-scripts and Python);

c) increase the number of specialists in the region that are trained in the methodology; and

d) generate a set of preliminary pilot basin case studies in the region that applied the methodology.

Downloads

Programme

Sunday

3 August

Monday

4 August

Tuesday

5 August

Wednesday

6 August

Thursday

7 August

Friday

8 August

Morning

Introduction to the framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications1

A case study of SimGen: Demonstration of application in Argentina and Uruguay3

Application of Simgen to pilot case studies in LAC.

Part 1: Station Data input and Decomposition

Part 4 : Downscaling

Return of the participants

Part 2: Regional Annual-to-Decadal Variability

Part 5 : Simulation and Model Checking

Afternoon

Arrival of participants

Overview of the SimGen Package2

Guided practical exercise: Application of SimGen to station data in Argentina

Part 3: Subannual Variations

Comparison of results

 

Installation of Virtual Machines, Python, R

Conclusions and Roadmap for further activities

(1)    Greene, A.M., M. Hellmuth, and J.W. Hansen. 2012a. A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications. CCAFS Report. International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

(2)    Greene, A.M. 2012. The simgen software package: User guide and notes. International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

(3)    Greene, A.M., M. Hellmuth, and T. Lumsden. 2012b. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede Water Management Areas, Western Cape province, South Africa.  Water Resour Res 48:W06504.

 

 

MWAR LAC - Managing Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Latin America and the Caribbean