Second International Workshop 'Development of near-term climate scenarios (2020-2035) for vulnerable watersheds to climatic variability at the interanual, decadal and climate change time scales'

Cartagena, Colombia, August 18-21 2015

General Objective

The objective of this activity is to develop probabilistic scenarios for near-term climatic conditions for vulnerable pilot watersheds in Latin America, based on a historical analysis of climatic variability, combined with an assessment of current and projected sensitivity to climate change. Linked to decision support models, such as WEAP, these near-term climatic scenarios will inform about possible future vulnerabilities in the water supply in these water-stressed environments.

Specific Objectives

Specifically, the workshop contributes to: a) capacity building of early-career professionals on the application of Near Term Climate Change Scenario Analysis for applications in hydrology and drought vulnerability analysis; b) training on the available open source software options (R-scripts and Python); c) increase the number of specialists in the region that are trained in the methodology; d) generate a set of preliminary pilot basin case studies in the region that applied the methodology; and e) determine the vulnerability of inter-annual and decadal variability, as well as climate change impact on water resources in pilot basins in the region.

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Programme

Time

Activity

Instructor

09:00-09:30

Inauguration

Director of Centro de Formación en Cartagena de Indias - Colombia

Embassador Jeroen Cooreman of the Belgian Embassy in Colombia

Dr. Koen Verbist, Program Specialist of UNESCO

09:30-09:45

Presentation of the participants

09:45-10:00

Presentation of the general framework of Water Resources Management in vulnerable zones of Latin America – Koen Verbist, UNESCO

Koen Verbist

10:00-10:30

Coffee

 

10:30-11:00

Introduction to the general framwork of decadal  variability simulations for water resources management1

Koen Verbist

 

11:00-12:30

Presentation of the Software SimGen2

Gabriel Rodriguez

12.30:-13:30

Lunch

 

13:30.-14:00

Generation of climate scenarios and the linkage with the Model VIC

Deniz Bozkurt

14:00.-15:30

Installation of Virtual Machines with Python and R

Gabriel Rodriguez

15:30-15:45

Coffee

 

15:45-17:00

Installation of Virtual Machines with Python and R

Gabriel Rodriguez

Day 2: Training of the use of methodologies, using case studies

Time

Activity

Instructor

08:30-09:30

A Casestudy in Argentina and Uruguay, using SimGen

Gabriel Rodriguez

09:30-10:30

Practical Exercise :  Application of SimGen in Argentina and Uruguay

Gabriel Rodriguez

10:30-11:00

Coffee

 

11:00-13:00

Practical Exercise :  Application of SimGen in Argentina and Uruguay

Gabriel Rodriguez

13:00-14:00

Lunch

 

14:00.-15:30

Application of SimGen in the pilot watershed Huasco, using the hydrological model  WEAP

Hector Maureira/ Sergio Gutierrez/Koen Verbist

15:30-15:45

Coffee

 

15:45-17:00

Practical  Exercise: Application of SimGen for the appliation of WEAP-Huasco

Koen Verbist/Hector Maureira/ Sergio Gutierrez/ Gabriel Rodriguez

Day 3: Individual work of the participants´ national databases with supervision of the instructors

Time

Activity

Instructor

08:30-10:30

Application of Simgen for case studies in ALC. Step 1: Entering the data  and decomposing time series

Hector Maureira/Gabriel Rodriguez/Koen Verbist

10:30-11:00

Coffee

 

10:11-13:00

Step 2: Decomposing the anual and decadal variation on a regional level

Gabriel Rodriguez/

Koen Verbist

13:00-14:00

Lunch

 

14:00.-15:30

Step 3: Decomposing the sub-anual variation

Gabriel Rodriguez/

Koen Verbist

15:30-15:45

Coffee

 

15:45-17:00

Step 3: Decomposing the sub-anual variation

Gabriel Rodriguez/

Koen Verbist

Day 4: Individual work of the participants´ national datebases with supervision of the instructors

Time

Activity

Instructor

8:30 - 9:00

Evaluation by CF

CF

09:00-10:30

Step 4: Identification of the regional tendency to climate change

Gabriel Rodriguez/

Koen Verbist

10:30-11:00

Coffee

 

11:00-12:00

Step 5 : Simulation and evaluation of models

Gabriel Rodriguez/

Koen Verbist

12:00-12:30

Conclusions and  roadmap for future activities

12:30-13:00

Closure

Director of Centro de Formación en Cartagena de Indias - Colombia

Koen Verbist, Program Specialist of UNESCO

13:00-14:00

Lunch

References

(1)    Greene, A.M., M. Hellmuth, and J.W. Hansen. 2012a. A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications. CCAFS Report. International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

(2)    Greene, A.M. 2012. The simgen software package: User guide and notes. International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

(3)    Greene, A.M., M. Hellmuth, and T. Lumsden. 2012b. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede Water Management Areas, Western Cape province, South Africa.  Water Resour Res 48:W06504.

MWAR LAC - Managing Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Latin America and the Caribbean